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Realtors Predict Home Prices in These 10 Cities Will Crash in the Next 12 Months

With affordability worsening, some markets are showing signs of strain.

By Chris Lewis, CEPF , Edited by Calista Headrick

Updated June 25, 2026

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Property values have been soaring for years, as remote workers and low mortgage rates fueled a housing boom. In some markets, the trend is about to change.

According to Realtor.com's 2026 housing forecast, home prices are expected to decline in 22 of the nation's 100 largest metro areas over the next year. Most are concentrated in the Southeast and West, where pandemic-era demand has disappeared, housing supply has grown, and buyers' negotiating power has increased.

Here are 10 cities where real estate professionals expect home prices to fall over the next 12 months. To prepare yourself financially, you need to know what it means, whether you're considering a move or already own a home there.

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Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida

Realtor.com forecasts a more than 10% decline in this Florida market. Rising insurance premiums, hurricane concerns, and a surge of available inventory have weakened demand.

This is great news for buyers, as Christina Rordam, a real estate agent with Florida Realty Investments, explains: "I negotiated a price cut and interest rate buy-down for a buyer recently, so the deals are out there. Don't be afraid to ask for the price and terms you want. My advice to retirees is to connect with a local realtor."

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Tampa, Florida

Tampa has also added significant inventory during the building boom and now offers a more balanced market. If you own in Tampa, the risk is a slower price appreciation than you may be accustomed to.

For buyers, things are more nuanced. Rordam mentions the Save Our Homes Act that may become law this fall. "Home purchases made after 2027 will have a five-year waiting period before they realize the full tax advantages." Still, she is optimistic: "Florida has no state income tax and property owners can claim a $50,000 exemption on their primary residence."

North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Florida

This Florida market is expecting an 8.9% price decline. Construction has also dramatically increased inventory in recent years, and demand has cooled from pandemic highs.

Ben Mizes, a real estate agent and president of Clever Real Estate, notes, "For many retirees, a price drop isn't a good deal. They must consider insurance costs, property taxes and HOA reserves, flood insurance, and how long they expect to live there. Purchasing in a market with declining prices means being prepared to hold the property during the price drop."

Riverside-San Bernardino, California

To understand how things are on the ground, we talked with Brian Rosenstein, the CEO of Brookhill Corp, and a City Planning Commissioner for the City of Los Angeles.

He told us that demand is still going strong, but inflation and slightly higher mortgage rates have put a damper on home deals. Moreover, insurance premiums have jumped 30% in 2025.

His advice for retirees is caution: "Make sure your income is the driving factor in what you buy [...] so you choose something you can afford comfortably even if that's a bit smaller. Financial stress will ruin the joy and enjoyment of a new place more than anything."

Raleigh, North Carolina

Raleigh has experienced many of the same pandemic-era migration trends as Florida cities. It's still a sought-after market, but higher prices and mortgage rates have reduced buyers' appetites.

According to Ken Corsini, co-owner at Red Barn Homebuyers, other factors include "insurance premiums and the buyers' ability to negotiate better deals." He warns that low prices don't equal low costs, and retirees should pay particular attention to insurance, which could derail their long-term retirement plans.

Sacramento, California

Sacramento saw a major influx of remote workers escaping the Bay Area. As that migration has cooled and affordability is a challenge, the market has lost the momentum that fueled rapid appreciation. As an owner, don't expect your home value to soar the same way as in past years of outsized gains.

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Naples-Marco Island, Florida

The biggest damper on home prices in this Florida market is insurance costs, caused primarily by climate-related risks. While high-end buyers may find more room to negotiate, luxury homeowners are less likely to find much resale demand.

Jonathan Ayala, a real estate agent with RealEstatePhotography.com, advises retirees to wait until later in the year to decide among properties. He also recommends a pre-purchase inspection and keeping insurance costs in mind, which may raise your bills by $200 to $400 each month.

Austin, Texas

Alex Jensen, the co-founder and CEO of Caruth Brothers Real Estate, a Texas-based home-buying company, summarizes the Austin market as an imbalance between supply and demand, with more homes available than buyers. Mortgage rates are high, so price reductions are becoming more common.

Jensen advises due diligence: "Look beyond headline price declines and evaluate property taxes, insurance costs, health care access, and the long-term economic health of the market. A lower purchase price can be attractive, but the overall cost of ownership is what matters most."

Phoenix, Arizona

For insights on Phoenix, we contacted Neil Brooks, a Phoenix-based real estate agent and NewDay USA Spokesperson.

His take on the situation in Phoenix echoes what realtors in Florida are also experiencing: "What we're seeing isn't a collapse in values, it's the market digesting years of rapid appreciation and aggressive construction that happened in a very short period of time."

This is great news for cash buyers looking at 55+ communities. Sellers have it worse. Says Brooks: "The homes getting the most attention today are move-in ready and priced realistically from day one."

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Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, California

While the Ventura County market is highly desirable, it's also increasingly expensive. Faced with high prices and borrowing costs, buyers still have more negotiating leverage than they did five years ago.

On the other hand, as an owner, you should be aware that move-up homes, not to mention luxury properties, may take way longer to sell than in previous markets.

Bottom line

Most housing markets aren't expected to experience dramatic crashes, but some of the pandemic's hottest destinations are facing price corrections. This creates opportunities to buy in desirable areas at a discount. For current homeowners, softer prices may mean adjusting expectations about future home value growth to maintain financial fitness.

One final piece of advice for buyers comes from Ari Rastegar, owner of Rastegar Property Company, "For the first time in several years, buyers can negotiate on price, request repairs, obtain seller concessions, and take the time to perform proper due diligence."

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